Patna: A fresh IANS–Matrize opinion poll released on Wednesday suggests that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised to return to power in Bihar, but forecasts a significant setback for Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), despite its high-profile presence in the campaign.
The poll predicts that the NDA could win between 153 and 164 seats, while the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), led by Tejashwi Yadav, is likely to secure 76 to 87 seats. Voting for the first phase is scheduled for Thursday.
Chirag Paswan’s party may win only 4–5 seats
One of the poll’s most striking findings is the projection for Chirag Paswan — who often describes himself as “Narendra Modi’s Hanuman”. While the LJP has been allocated 29 assembly seats under the NDA’s seat-sharing deal, the survey estimates it may win only 4 to 5 seats, signalling a steep drop in performance.
A result of this scale would give the party a low strike rate, a sharp contrast to its showing in the Lok Sabha elections, where Paswan argued that his parliamentary performance justified a larger share of assembly seats.
HAM (S) projected to outperform expectations
In contrast, the survey forecasts strong gains for former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM). The party, contesting six seats, is predicted to win 4 to 5, resulting in a strike rate of nearly 90%.
Congress may struggle despite larger seat share
The survey also highlights potential problems within the opposition Grand Alliance. According to the findings, the Congress — which has fielded candidates in 62 constituencies — may win only 7 to 9 seats.
Analysts warn that the RJD’s decision to give the Congress more seats than its organisational strength may replicate a past electoral miscalculation. In 2017, Akhilesh Yadav allocated 100 seats to the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, only for the party to win seven, a move widely seen as contributing to the Samajwadi Party’s defeat.
