Bihar By-Elections 2024: Counting Begins for Four Crucial Assembly Seats

Patna: The counting of votes for the by-elections held in four assembly constituencies of Bihar—Tarari, Belaganj, Imamganj, and Ramgarh—began at 8 a.m. today. The Election Commission has made extensive arrangements to ensure a smooth counting process, with results expected to shape the political dynamics ahead of the 2025 state assembly elections.

On November 13, these constituencies recorded a voter turnout of 52.83%, with Tarari registering 50.10%, Belaganj 56.21%, Imamganj 51.01%, and Ramgarh 54.02%.

Counting Arrangements

Imamganj and Belaganj: Counting is being conducted at the Humanities Building of Gaya College, with 28 tables and 11 rounds for each constituency.
Tarari: Government Girls’ Plus Two High School in Ara city is hosting the process with similar arrangements.
Ramgarh: Votes are being tallied at Mohania Market Committee, following an identical format.

Political Stakes and Key Contests

In the 2020 elections, the Grand Alliance held three of these seats—Ramgarh, Tarari, and Belaganj—while former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi of HAM won Imamganj. This by-election is seen as a litmus test for the Grand Alliance under Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership, especially as the coalition prepares for the 2025 assembly polls.

Belaganj: A historic RJD stronghold for 35 years, Belaganj is witnessing a triangular contest. RJD has fielded Vishwanath Yadav, son of sitting MP Surendra Yadav. JD(U) has fielded Manorama Devi, wife of the late strongman Bindi Yadav, aiming to break RJD’s MY (Muslim-Yadav) equation. Prashant Kishore’s Jansuraj Party, contesting its first election, has introduced Md. Amjad to target the Muslim vote bank.
Imamganj: Jitan Ram Manjhi’s daughter-in-law Deepa Manjhi is contesting for HAM. RJD has fielded Roshan Manjhi, while Jansuraj has introduced Dr. Jitendra Paswan, potentially dividing HAM’s Paswan vote base.
Tarari: Known as a CPI(ML) bastion, the constituency is a key test for the party as it battles against a fractured upper-caste vote bank.
Ramgarh: RJD’s Ajit Singh, brother of MP Sudhakar Singh, faces competition from BJP’s Ashok Kumar Singh, BSP’s Satish Yadav, and Jansuraj’s Sushil Kumar Singh Kushwaha.

Demographic Equations at Play

The by-elections highlight intricate caste dynamics across all four constituencies:

Belaganj: Dominated by Yadavs (19%) and Muslims (17%), with Musahars (11%) forming the third-largest vote bank.
Imamganj: Musahars lead the population at 18.6%, followed by Muslims (15.3%) and Yadavs (13.2%).
Tarari: Yadavs form 13.9%, with EBCs (12.3%) and upper castes collectively constituting 24%.
Ramgarh: Dalits dominate with 29%, including 22% from the Chamar community, while Rajputs, Yadavs, and Muslims hold significant shares.

A Semi-Final Before 2025

This by-election is widely regarded as a precursor to the 2025 assembly elections. Tejashwi Yadav led aggressive campaigns, with Lalu Prasad Yadav stepping in personally to defend RJD’s Belaganj bastion. On the other hand, JD(U) Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s political reputation hinges on Belaganj, the only constituency where JD(U) is contesting under the NDA banner.

Prashant Kishore’s Jansuraj Party also makes its electoral debut, testing its grassroots-driven model against established political players.

As counting progresses, all eyes remain on the Election Commission’s updates to determine whether the Grand Alliance can retain its hold or if the NDA will stage a resurgence in this critical mid-term electoral battle.