Patna: The Bihar election trends have once again underscored the rising influence of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the Seemanchal region. As Asaduddin Owaisi’s party posted strong numbers across five to six key constituencies, early trends indicated a severe jolt for the Mahagathbandhan, which appears to have underestimated AIMIM’s organisational reach.
According to the Election Commission’s latest figures, AIMIM candidates are moving towards comfortable margins on multiple seats. Analysts say the party’s performance has revived questions the Grand Alliance left unanswered in 2020 — especially regarding its inability to accommodate Owaisi despite his consolidating presence in Muslim-majority pockets.
Analysts say Mahagathbandhan misread AIMIM’s growing base
Political observers note that AIMIM’s consistent push on the ground — particularly in Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia and Katihar — has altered traditional vote patterns. “Owaisi fielded strong local candidates, which created direct contests,” said political analyst Pushyamitra. “A significant share of Muslim votes shifted, leaving Mahagathbandhan candidates trailing against NDA rivals.”
Multiple seats witnessed triangular or four-way contests involving AIMIM, RJD, Congress and NDA candidates — a dynamic that worked to the NDA’s advantage. Commentator Omprakash Ashk said AIMIM’s rise also reflects a long-term backlash: “RJD had absorbed AIMIM’s former MLAs, which damaged trust. Owaisi’s cadre worked on the ground for five years. This result is part revenge, part resurgence.”
Akhterul Iman emerges as Seemanchal’s dominant face
AIMIM’s state president Akhterul Iman has become the standout figure of this cycle. From Amour, he is ahead by a margin touching 38,000 votes.
In other constituencies:
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Mohammad Sarwar Alam (Kochadhaman) leads by around 23,000 votes
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Mohammad Tausif Alam (Bahadurganj) holds nearly 18,000 votes ahead
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Mohammad Murshid Alam (Jokihat) appears securely placed with a lead of over 28,000 votes
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Gulam Sarwar (Baisi) is ahead by nearly 15,000 votes
These margins signal AIMIM’s consolidation rather than a one-cycle spike.
A repeat of 2020 — but sharper
In 2020, AIMIM had stunned the political class by winning five seats. The pattern appears to be repeating — only more pronounced. Even as the Congress, a national party contesting 61 seats, struggles on five, AIMIM is in a stronger position in its limited but focused turf.
The takeaway is clear: Owaisi’s party has become a permanent force in Seemanchal politics. The Mahagathbandhan’s decision to sideline AIMIM — twice — has proved costly.
