Patna: With voting scheduled on Tuesday for 122 assembly seats across 20 districts, the second phase of the Bihar election has entered its decisive stretch. The outcome will determine not only the fortunes of prominent local leaders but also the political trajectory of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Grand Alliance.
Among those whose political futures hang in the balance are two former deputy chief ministers – Tar Kishore Prasad and Renu Devi – as well as senior NDA figures including Nitish Mishra, Bijendra Prasad Yadav, Leshi Singh and Prem Kumar.
On the opposition side, the Grand Alliance has fielded seasoned names: Uday Narayan Choudhary from Sikandra, Rajesh Ram (Congress state president) from Kutumba, Shakeel Ahmed Khan from Kadwa and Mehboob Alam of the CPI (ML) from Kadwa.
The alliances have also shifted significantly since 2020. The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), once an independent force, now backs the NDA; while the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), previously aligned with the NDA, has joined the Grand Alliance. Meanwhile, seats that once looked safe are now under scrutiny across multiple fronts.
Micro-battles under the microscope
Several constituencies stand out for intense ground-level contests:
- At Parihar, three women are in the fray: independent rebel Ritu Jaiswal (who narrowly lost last time) is up against the BJP’s Gayatri Devi and the RJD’s candidate Smita Purve. Caste dynamics — particularly Vaishya and Yadav voters — will likely play a key role.
- In Sikta, a rebel candidate — former minister Khurshid Firoz Ahmed (running independently) — has complicated matters for the JD(U)-NDA’s ticket holder Samridh Verma, as the Grand Alliance’s Virendra Gupta battles both rivals. Muslim voters are expected to be crucial here.
- At Harsiddhi (SC reserved), the NDA’s sugar-industry minister Krishnanandan Paswan is facing the RJD’s Rajendra Kumar Ram — with a third-corner contender from the Jan Suraaj Party complicating the picture among upper-caste, Kushwaha and Mallah voters.
- In Jhanjharpur, the stakes are high for the NDA: industry minister Nitish Mishra is pitted against the Grand Alliance’s stalwart Ram Narayan Yadav and a third entrant from Jan Suraaj. Brahmin, Yadav, extremely backward class and Muslim voters all feature heavily in the arithmetic.
- In Shivhar, since the NDA has replaced its former MLA with Dr Shweta Gupta (Vaishya community) to recombine caste equations, the emergence of the Jan Suraj Party candidate Neeraj Singh (Rajput) and the BSP’s Mohammad Sharfuddin rébel (ex-JDU) has raised concerns about fragmentation of traditionally secure votes.
Elsewhere, seats such as Motihari, Gopalpur, Jokihat and Arwal likewise present multi-corner fights involving incumbents, rebels and emerging players, underlining the fluidity of the contest across the second phase.
Why this stage matters
The second phase, covering 122 seats and around 3.7 crore eligible voters, spans key regions including Seemanchal, Magadh and Shahabad. Historically, the NDA has performed strongly in the Tirhut and northern Mithilanchal belt, while the Grand Alliance looks to consolidate support in Magadh’s social-justice strongholds. Both camps are interpreting the record turnout in the first phase (≈ 65 %) as indicative of either a pro-change mood or a renewed endorsement of the status quo. Meanwhile the BJP is recalibrating its messaging in border-district seats around Seemanchal, emphasising concerns of “infiltration” and national security to appeal to its identity-and-governance narrative.
The broader significance
For the NDA, led in the state by the Janata Dal (United)-BJP alliance, a strong showing would bolster its position ahead of the 2029 general election and reaffirm its claim to social-coalition control in a politically pivotal state. On the other side, the Grand Alliance — anchored by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Indian National Congress — is seeking not just to reduce the gap, but to break new ground in regions where it has lagged behind.
