Patna: Exit polls released after voting in the Bankipur Assembly by-election have projected a significant political shift in one of Bihar’s most closely watched constituencies, with multiple survey agencies predicting that Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor could defeat the BJP in what has long been regarded as one of its safest urban seats.
If the projections prove accurate when votes are counted on August 3, the result would mark the BJP’s first defeat in Bankipur in nearly three decades and hand Prashant Kishor his first electoral victory since launching Jan Suraaj as a political party.
However, exit polls have frequently diverged from actual election results in Bihar and elsewhere in India, making the projections indicative rather than conclusive.
Four Surveys Point To Jan Suraaj Lead
The strongest projection came from Janmat Polls, which estimated Prashant Kishor’s vote share at 49% to 52%, placing him comfortably ahead of BJP candidate Neeraj Kumar Sinha, who was projected to secure 34% to 36%. The survey estimated the RJD’s Rekha Gupta would receive 9% to 10%, with other candidates accounting for the remainder.
A separate survey by DV Research, based on interviews with 1,580 voters after polling, projected 43% of the vote for Prashant Kishor against 39% for the BJP candidate. It placed the RJD in third with 15%.
Poll Pandit forecast an even larger victory, estimating that Jan Suraaj could secure more than 50% of the vote. It projected the BJP’s vote share at 38% to 42%, while predicting that the RJD would receive around 5%.
Rudra Research similarly projected Prashant Kishor to win with approximately 50% of the vote, ahead of the BJP on 36%, suggesting a winning margin of about 14 percentage points.
A Test Of BJP’s Urban Stronghold
The by-election has attracted attention not only because of Prashant Kishor’s candidature but also because of Bankipur’s electoral history.
The constituency has been represented by the BJP for nearly 30 years. Former minister Nitin Nabin won the seat five consecutive times, while his father, Navin Prasad Kishore Sinha, had earlier represented the constituency for four terms when it was known as Patna West before delimitation.
The by-election was necessitated after Nitin Nabin vacated the seat, with the BJP fielding Neeraj Kumar Sinha in an attempt to retain the constituency.
A victory for Jan Suraaj would therefore represent more than a by-election gain; it would signal the party’s ability to challenge established political forces in urban Bihar.
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RJD Faces Tough Contest
All four exit polls place the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in a distant third position.
While the projected vote share varies between surveys, none indicates that the party is in contention for victory. If borne out by the final results, it would underline the difficulties the opposition alliance faces in expanding its support in urban constituencies such as Bankipur.
Low Turnout Adds Uncertainty
Polling on Thursday recorded a voter turnout of around 34%, lower than in the previous Assembly election.
Political analysts often caution that lower turnout can make electoral outcomes more difficult to predict, particularly in urban constituencies where voting patterns vary significantly across demographic groups.
The lower participation rate has added another layer of uncertainty to an already closely watched contest.
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Exit Polls Are Not Results
Exit polls are based on interviews with voters after they have cast their ballots and are intended to estimate the likely outcome. While they can indicate electoral trends, they are not official results and have, on several occasions, failed to accurately predict the final verdict.
Whether Prashant Kishor has indeed breached the BJP’s long-standing electoral fortress—or whether Bankipur once again defies expectations—will become clear only when votes are counted on August 3.
