Patna: Exit polls released on Monday evening after the conclusion of the second and final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections have projected an edge for the NDA, suggesting that the alliance could retain power in the state. However, analysts and voters alike remain cautious, given the mixed track record of exit polls in Bihar’s recent electoral history.
According to the Matrix–IANS exit poll, the NDA is projected to secure 48% of the vote share, compared with 38% for the Grand Alliance and 14% for other parties. The survey forecasts that Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) will emerge as the single largest party, winning 67 to 75 seats, while the BJP is expected to bag 65 to 73. The RJD, led by Lalu Prasad and Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, may secure 50 to 58 seats, the poll suggests.
Voting in Bihar was held in two phases for all 243 assembly seats, with voter turnout reaching 65% in the first phase and a record 67% in the second — among the highest in the state’s electoral history. Results will be declared on November 14.
Exit polls, which are conducted immediately after voters cast their ballots, aim to gauge public sentiment by interviewing voters outside polling stations. The data collected is then analysed to project likely election outcomes.
However, the accuracy of exit polls in Bihar has often been in question. In the 2015 Assembly elections, most surveys had predicted a narrow victory for the NDA, but the Grand Alliance (RJD-JDU-Congress) won a sweeping majority. Conversely, in 2020, the trend was reversed — several exit polls forecasted an RJD-led Grand Alliance victory, but the NDA ultimately formed the government with 125 seats.
Political observers note that Bihar’s diverse electorate and localised voting patterns make it one of the most challenging states for pollsters to predict accurately. “Exit polls offer a snapshot of voter sentiment, but Bihar has repeatedly shown that its final verdict often defies pre-election and post-voting surveys,” a political analyst in Patna said.
