Patna: As exit polls for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections project a strong return of the NDA and a clear setback for the Grand Alliance, one question looms large over the Congress: how much impact did Rahul Gandhi’s campaign really have?
Exit poll data from agencies such as Chanakya Strategy, IANS–Matrix, and People’s Pulse paint a consistent picture — the Congress, despite a visible campaign presence led by Rahul Gandhi, has failed to translate enthusiasm into votes. The party is projected to win between 17 and 23 seats, roughly similar to its 2020 tally, suggesting that Rahul’s rallies and messaging may not have resonated with Bihar’s voters.
A Campaign High on Optics, Low on Conversion
During the campaign, Rahul Gandhi focused on themes of vote theft, employment, education, and social justice, while attacking Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar over governance and corruption. His speeches — emotional, combative, and laced with personal appeals — drew large crowds, particularly in Seemanchal, Mithila, and Bhagalpur. Yet, as the exit polls suggest, this turnout may not have converted into votes.
Political analyst Sanjay Kumar noted, “Rahul Gandhi’s rallies attract attention but seldom alter Bihar’s caste arithmetic. The Congress remains an ally dependent on RJD’s base rather than a force of its own.”
The Congress Conundrum in Bihar
Congress’s traditional base in Bihar — upper castes and minorities — has eroded steadily over two decades. While the RJD continues to dominate the backward caste and Muslim vote, Congress’s lack of a robust local organization has kept it on the periphery of state politics.
Rahul Gandhi’s appeal to young voters and women, often framed around his “Nyay” (justice) narrative, did not seem to cut across Bihar’s entrenched social lines. In districts like Kishanganj, Katihar, and Bhagalpur, where he campaigned intensely, exit polls suggest modest swings but no structural change in voting patterns.
What the Exit Polls Say
According to Chanakya Strategy, the NDA is projected to win 130–138 seats, while the Grand Alliance may secure 100–108. Within the alliance, the Congress is forecast to bag 17–23 seats, mirroring its past performance.
The People’s Pulse exit poll paints a similar picture — Congress’s limited traction despite Rahul Gandhi’s high-voltage campaign. The results indicate that the Congress’s role in Bihar remains symbolic rather than strategic, functioning as an electoral ally rather than a political driver.
Whether Rahul Gandhi’s “shop of love” in the “market of hatred,” as he calls it, can eventually rebuild the party’s grassroots in Bihar remains uncertain. For now, exit polls suggest that Bihar’s voters have once again chosen stability over symbolism.
