Patna: Bihar recorded a historic 64.46% voter turnout in the first phase of polling for 121 assembly constituencies on Thursday (6th November), setting the stage for what could be a major political shift in the state. This is the highest turnout in the state’s electoral history. In comparison, the first phase of the 2020 assembly polls saw only 55.68% turnout when elections were held in three phases.
If a similar trend continues in the second and final phase for the remaining 122 seats, experts believe the state’s political landscape could undergo significant change.
Data from Bihar’s 17 assembly elections since independence show that whenever voter turnout has increased or decreased by more than 5%, it has resulted in a change not only in power but also in the state’s political dynamics. However, three out of four experts interviewed believe that while power may not change hands this time, the political equations could shift substantially.
Historical Pattern: When Turnout Changed, So Did Power
1967 – First Non-Congress Government:
Voter turnout rose by 7%, leading to Bihar’s first non-Congress government. Mahamaya Prasad Sinha became Chief Minister as the Jan Kranti Dal and Shoshit Dal broke Congress’s dominance, marking the beginning of its decline.
1980 – Congress Regains Power:
With a 6.8% rise in turnout, Congress returned to power under Jagannath Mishra after defeating the Janata Party. However, internal rifts ended its rule within a decade.
1990 – Lalu Yadav’s Rise:
Turnout increased by 5.8%, ending Congress’s dominance. Janata Dal came to power, and Lalu Prasad Yadav became Chief Minister. The Mandal era began, reshaping Bihar’s politics for the next 15 years.
2005 – Nitish Era Begins:
Turnout dropped by 16.1%, ending the Lalu-Rabri regime. Nitish Kumar became Chief Minister, building his image as a “vikas purush” (leader of development). He has since held power for two decades, often through shifting alliances.
Three Scenarios After the 2025 Election
1. Nitish Kumar Emerges Stronger:
Analysts predict that Nitish Kumar could regain his 2010 stature if the JD(U)-BJP alliance performs well. In 2010, JD(U) won 115 seats, while in 2020 it dropped to 43, making the BJP the dominant partner.
2. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj as a Game-Changer:
Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari said, “Nitish Kumar is aging and hasn’t named a successor. If Jan Suraaj secures even 10% of votes, it could establish itself as Bihar’s third force.” He added that this might reshape long-term political alignments.
3. Tejashwi Yadav Faces Leadership Test:
If the Grand Alliance fails to secure a majority, Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership could be questioned. Congress is reportedly unsure about continuing under his command. With pending IRCTC scam charges, a prolonged opposition stint could weaken his position ahead of the next polls.
What Experts Say
Amitabh Tiwari, Founder, Vote Vibe:
“Increased voter turnout can cut both ways. Women and Nitish’s traditional supporters have voted in large numbers — this could either signal continued support or a respectful farewell.”
Rakesh Praveer, Senior Journalist:
“There’s no strong anti-incumbency against Nitish. The higher turnout indicates engagement, not anger. Nitish could stage a powerful comeback.”
Abhiranjan Kumar, Senior Journalist:
“Prashant Kishor may gain visibility, but Nitish remains politically steady. His ₹10,000 assistance scheme for women is paying off. Whenever Nitish is perceived weak, he bounces back stronger — just like in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.”
Arvind Mohan, Political Analyst:
“Such aggressive voting often signals a desire for change. If the same trend continues in the second phase, the government could face trouble.”
Why Voter Turnout Increased
1. Women-Centric Schemes:
Both NDA and the Grand Alliance focused on women voters. The Nitish government deposited ₹10,000 each into the accounts of 1.21 crore women under its employment scheme, while Tejashwi Yadav promised ₹30,000 annually to women. Analysts believe this prompted large-scale female participation.
2. SIR Issue (Deleted Voter List Debate):
The Grand Alliance accused the government of “vote theft” after deletion of over 65 lakh names from the voter list. Arvind Mohan said this mobilized backward and extremely backward voters, while Abhiranjan Kumar argued the turnout rise was statistical — due to fewer total registered voters, not necessarily more ballots cast.
3. Jan Suraaj’s Impact:
According to Pawan Korada, the emergence of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party revived political enthusiasm among first-time and disillusioned voters, especially the youth.
4. Chhath Festival Factor:
Voting after the Chhath festival encouraged more participation as migrant Biharis who returned home for the festival stayed back to vote. Campaigns by Jan Suraaj and the Grand Alliance urged them to exercise their franchise before leaving.
The Road Ahead
As Bihar heads into the second and final phase of polling, the unprecedented voter enthusiasm has injected uncertainty into the state’s predictable political narrative. Whether it’s a renewed mandate for Nitish Kumar, a rise of a new player like Prashant Kishor, or a test of Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership — the next phase will decide not just who governs Bihar, but how its politics evolves in the years ahead.
