Patna: Voting for the second and final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections will be held today across 122 constituencies in 20 districts. Of these, 82 seats are being seen as decisive — the outcome here is expected to determine who will form the next government in the state.
In the first phase, voting took place for 121 seats where the NDA and the Grand Alliance were locked in a neck-and-neck contest, similar to the 2020 elections. The second phase, however, is widely regarded as the NDA’s stronghold.
According to trends from the past three Assembly elections — 2010, 2015, and 2020 — the NDA has consistently performed better in this phase. In 2020, the NDA secured 66 of the 122 seats (54%), while the Grand Alliance managed 56 (46%). In 2015, when the JD(U) was part of the Grand Alliance, the Nitish Kumar-led bloc won 67 seats (55%) compared to 54 for the NDA. Going further back, in 2010, the NDA had an overwhelming victory, bagging 104 seats (85%) while the Grand Alliance was limited to just 11.
Champaran: The NDA’s Dominance Continues
The Champaran region, comprising East and West Champaran districts, has 21 assembly seats and remains a key stronghold for the NDA. In 2020, it won 17 of these seats; in 2015, the current NDA partners together had secured 14 (67%); and in 2010, they had swept 18 seats (86%).
Champaran’s voting patterns are influenced by communities such as Vaishya, Koeri, EBCs, and the Tharu tribes. The Mallah/Sahani community among the EBCs holds significant sway. Political analyst Sanjay Singh says that memories of the lawlessness of the 1990s continue to shape voter sentiment. “A mobilization against the so-called ‘jungle raj’ often overrides caste equations, which is why JD(U)-BJP continues to dominate this region,” he said.
This time, the Grand Alliance is trying to counter the NDA’s hold by aligning with Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), representing the Mallah/Sahani community. Priyanka Gandhi’s campaign in Bettiah, where she was seen participating in a Tharu folk dance, was also aimed at wooing tribal voters.
Magadh: Can the Grand Alliance Hold Its Ground?
The Magadh region, which includes Gaya, Aurangabad, Arwal, Nawada, Jehanabad, and parts of Patna, Nalanda, and Sheikhpura, is another key battleground. Voting for 26 seats in five of these districts will take place today.
In 2020, the Grand Alliance, backed by CPI(ML), dominated the region by winning 20 of 26 seats (77%), while the NDA secured only six. However, the area has seen fluctuating loyalties — in 2015, the Grand Alliance won 14 seats and the NDA 12, but in 2010, the NDA had swept 23 of 26.
The region has a mix of forward and backward caste politics. While Nitish Kumar enjoys influence among Koeri-Kurmi and EBC voters, the Grand Alliance has traditionally drawn strength from backward caste support. After losing ground in 2020 and 2024, the NDA has recalibrated its strategy, inducting leaders like Upendra Kushwaha and Nagmani to consolidate the Kushwaha and EBC votes. The BJP has also brought in Ashutosh from the Bhumihar Brahmin Forum, indicating a renewed focus on forward-caste consolidation.
Seemanchal: AIMIM’s Role Could Decide the Winner
Seemanchal, comprising Katihar, Purnia, Araria, and Kishanganj, has 24 assembly seats. In 2020, the NDA won 12 seats, the Grand Alliance seven, and AIMIM five. The region’s high Muslim population — Kishanganj (68%), Araria (43%), Katihar (45%), and Purnia (39%) — makes it a critical factor in the electoral equation.
If Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM manages to attract Muslim votes again, it could split the Grand Alliance’s core base, indirectly benefiting the NDA. In 2015, when AIMIM did not contest, the Grand Alliance had won 19 of 24 seats. But in 2020, the entry of AIMIM reduced their tally to seven.
Shahabad: The NDA Eyes a Comeback
The Shahabad region, including Buxar, Bhojpur, Rohtas, and Kaimur, has 22 assembly seats. Voting will take place today for 11 of them. In 2020, the Grand Alliance swept all 11 seats, with the CPI(ML) playing a significant role. Overall, the NDA managed to win just two seats in the entire Shahabad belt, while the Grand Alliance bagged 19 and BSP one.
To regain lost ground, the NDA has made strategic moves — bringing back Bhojpuri actor-turned-politician Pawan Singh and Buxar leader Anand Mishra into the BJP fold, and sending Upendra Kushwaha to the Rajya Sabha to maintain his political relevance.
The Stakes
With the first phase indicating a tight race, the second phase is set to decide Bihar’s political future. The 82 key seats — spread across Champaran, Magadh, Seemanchal, and Shahabad — will determine whether the NDA retains power or the Grand Alliance stages a comeback.
As the battle intensifies, Bihar’s electoral heartland braces for a decisive day that could reshape the state’s political map once again.
