New Delhi: The Bihar assembly election results have delivered a resounding verdict: voters decisively rejected the Congress–RJD Mahagathbandhan and handed the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance a sweeping victory — almost exactly as most exit polls had predicted.
Kamakhya Analytics, which projected 167–187 seats for the NDA, emerged among the most accurate forecasters, with the final numbers landing close to its range. Matrix (147–167) and Today’s Chanakya (148–172) also indicated a strong NDA majority, and their estimates proved near precise once counting concluded.
The performance of Kamakhya Analytics drew particular attention within political circles. Bihar’s electoral landscape is shaped by layered caste equations, local grievances, the mobilisation of women voters and sharply polarised regional issues. Against this backdrop, analysts said Kamakhya’s booth-level sampling, demographic mapping and survey design helped it read voter sentiment with unusual clarity.
Predictions for the Mahagathbandhan were similarly in line with the outcome. Kamakhya placed the alliance between 54 and 74 seats, while Today’s Chanakya estimated 65–89 — both ranges reflecting the coalition’s slim prospects of forming a government.
Forecasts for smaller parties were also broadly accurate. Matrix projected five seats for JSP/JSUP, while Axis My India estimated zero to two; the final results fell within these margins. People’s Pulse (NDA 133–159, GA 75–101) and the Bhaskar Exit Poll (NDA 145–160, GA 73–91) likewise mirrored the eventual distribution. Agencies including P-Mark, Polstrat and People’s Insight all pointed to a clear NDA majority.
What stood out this election cycle was the degree of methodological refinement. Survey firms expanded fieldwork, strengthened sampling strategies and leaned heavily on data-driven modelling. The accuracy of the final projections has, in turn, undercut the Mahagathbandhan’s repeated claims that exit polls were unreliable.
For pollsters and political parties alike, Bihar’s results have offered a rare moment of convergence between prediction and reality.
(This is a response feature article)
