Patna: India Meteorological Department has projected that Bihar is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, raising concerns for agriculture and water availability across the state.
According to the Meteorological Centre in Patna, most parts of Bihar are expected to witness deficient rainfall during the June–September monsoon period.
Monsoon outlook: below normal rainfall
The IMD’s long-range forecast indicates that monsoon rainfall over Bihar will remain below normal in 2026, in line with a broader national trend where seasonal rainfall is expected to be around 92% of the long-period average.
Key global climatic factors influencing this outlook include:
- A transition from weak La Niña conditions towards neutral, with a likelihood of El Niño developing during the monsoon
- Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, with a possible positive phase later in the season
- Slightly below-normal snow cover in the northern hemisphere
These factors are expected to collectively suppress monsoon intensity over parts of eastern India, including Bihar.
Current weather: dry spell, rising temperatures
Meanwhile, the state has witnessed dry weather over the past 24 hours, with no recorded rainfall.
- Highest maximum temperature: 39.9°C at Bhabhua (Kaimur)
- Lowest minimum temperature: 16.4°C at Ziradei (Siwan)
- Wind speed: Up to 43 km/h recorded in Saran
Maximum temperatures across Bihar ranged between 31.3°C and 39.9°C, while minimum temperatures varied from 16.4°C to 25.4°C.
Short-term forecast: heat to intensify
The IMD has forecast a gradual rise in temperatures over the coming days:
- Maximum temperatures likely to increase by 1–3°C over the next 3–4 days
- Minimum temperatures expected to rise by 1–3°C over the next 2–3 days
No significant rainfall activity is expected in the immediate term, indicating a continuation of dry and warm conditions.
Implications for the state
A below-normal monsoon could have implications for Bihar’s agrarian economy, particularly in regions dependent on timely rainfall for paddy cultivation.
Experts note that while early forecasts provide a broad outlook, updated projections expected later in May will offer greater clarity on rainfall distribution and intensity.
For now, the combination of rising temperatures and a subdued monsoon outlook points to a challenging weather cycle ahead for the state.
