Patna: Bihar is witnessing April-like heat in the first week of March, with dry weather prevailing across the state over the past 24 hours. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), similar conditions are likely to continue for the next week, with no major rainfall activity expected in most districts.
The maximum temperature in the past 24 hours was recorded at 33.6°C in Banka. Cities including Patna, Muzaffarpur and Gaya reported a noticeable rise in daytime heat, making it difficult for residents to step out in the afternoon due to intense sunlight. In rural areas, however, mild chill was felt from night to early morning.
Aurangabad recorded the lowest minimum temperature at 13.3°C, while the state’s minimum temperatures ranged between 13.3°C and 19.8°C. The IMD has indicated that the number of heatwave days may increase this year, with hot winds likely to begin as early as April instead of May.
Dry weather for six days; light rain likely after March 10
The IMD has forecast dry weather across Bihar for the next six days. Thereafter, light rainfall may occur at one or two places in Supaul, Araria, Kishanganj, Purnia and Katihar districts.
Over the next 48 hours, maximum temperatures at many places in the state are expected to rise by 1–3°C, while minimum temperatures may increase by 2–4°C. Within a week, the maximum temperature could reach or exceed 36°C in several districts.
No weather warning has been issued for any district between March 5 and March 9, 2026. However, on March 10, light rain accompanied by lightning is likely at isolated locations in Supaul, Araria, Kishanganj, Purnia and Katihar. Wind speeds may reach 30–40 kmph during this period.
Active weather systems influencing Bihar
Meteorological conditions over the region are being shaped by multiple systems. A western disturbance persists as a trough in the mid-level tropospheric westerlies, with its axis around 5.8 km above sea level. An upper air cyclonic circulation is present over south Assam and adjoining areas at about 0.9 km above sea level. A similar cyclonic circulation is active over north Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh at the same altitude.
The subtropical westerly jet stream is positioned over northwest India at approximately 12.6 km above sea level. Additionally, a cyclonic circulation is active over the south Bay of Bengal and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean at around 1.5 km altitude. A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region from March 6, 2026.
Early heat linked to global warming, says IMD official
Anand Shankar, Director of the Patna Meteorological Centre, said there is no rainfall expected over the next week and temperatures are set to rise further. “Temperatures have already crossed 33°C in March. This is an indication of global warming. Compared to last year, temperatures may remain higher,” he said.
15-year trend shows early withdrawal of winter
Data over the past 15 years shows that Bihar’s annual average surface air temperature remains around 24°C. In March 2025, the state recorded a 15-year high, with temperatures touching 36.8°C.
In February 2026, the maximum temperature reached 31.3°C. Meteorologists say temperatures crossing 30°C in February indicate an early end to winter and an advance onset of summer. While mornings and evenings remain slightly cool, daytime heat has intensified significantly.
Heatwave and water crisis concerns in April–June
The IMD has projected above-normal temperatures between April and June, with an extended heatwave period. Based on last year’s trend and recent patterns, temperatures in several parts of Bihar could cross 40°C during peak summer.
An increase in heatwave days may impact public health and agriculture. Water demand is expected to rise, raising concerns about a potential water crisis, particularly in south Bihar where groundwater levels are more vulnerable.
Monsoon 2026 may be uneven
Early indications from the IMD and international agencies suggest that rainfall distribution during the 2026 monsoon season may be uneven. Meteorologists warn that Bihar could face a dual challenge — excess rainfall and flood risk in north Bihar, and deficient rainfall leading to drought-like conditions in south Bihar.
La Niña likely to weaken; Indian Ocean neutral
Dr. D.S. Pai, former head of the Climate Research and Services division in Pune, said the ongoing La Niña conditions are likely to weaken and turn neutral between February and April. If the monsoon sets in during neutral conditions, rainfall distribution often becomes uneven, with some regions receiving excess rain and others facing deficits.
Currently, the Indian Ocean is also in a neutral phase. Experts say that unless it shifts to a positive phase, it may not provide additional energy to strengthen the monsoon.
La Niña is a natural phenomenon marked by unusually cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It typically brings above-normal rainfall to India and colder winters.
Impact on crops: Wheat and maize at risk
Agricultural scientist M.D. Ojha said rising temperatures since February have already affected wheat crops, particularly those sown late. Excessive heat during flowering and grain formation reduces yield, as proper development of grains gets disrupted.
If high temperatures persist through April and May, maize crops could also suffer. Maize productivity begins to decline when temperatures rise above 30°C, he noted.
With March already resembling peak summer conditions, experts caution that the combined impact of heatwave, water stress and uncertain monsoon patterns could pose serious challenges for Bihar’s agriculture and economy in 2026.
