Patna: After months of behind-the-scenes negotiations and political maneuvering, the Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) on Sunday evening finalised its much-anticipated seat-sharing formula for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. The meeting, held in Patna, was described by insiders as a turning point that could redefine opposition politics in the state.
According to sources, the new formula reflects not just power equations but also lessons learned from the 2020 debacle. This time, the alliance’s guiding principle is clear: performance and winnability will determine ticket allocation, not seniority or sentiment.
RJD Retains Lead but Sacrifices Seats
As expected, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) will remain the dominant partner but has agreed to trim its share of seats — from 144 in 2020 to around 130 this time. This move, insiders say, is part of Tejashwi Yadav’s effort to project the RJD as an inclusive force willing to accommodate allies for a united anti-BJP front.
The Congress, however, faces the steepest cut — its quota reduced from 70 to nearly 55 seats. The decision is widely viewed as a direct consequence of its poor strike rate in 2020, when it won just 19 seats.
In contrast, the Left parties — particularly the CPI(ML) — have emerged as the biggest gainers. The CPI(ML), which won 12 of the 19 seats it contested in 2020, is expected to contest over 25 seats this time. The CPI and CPM will retain around six and four seats, respectively.
Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), a new entrant to the alliance, is likely to get around 15 seats, while five additional seats are being allocated to Hemant Soren’s JMM and Pashupati Paras’s RLJP from RJD’s quota.
Tejashwi Yadav is expected to hold one-on-one discussions with alliance partners to finalise the finer details, but sources confirm that “the broad outline is already sealed.”
The Four Formulas Behind Seat Sharing
1. The 2020 Report Card
The 2020 Assembly election results were used as the primary benchmark for this round of talks. Congress’s low strike rate of 27% (19 wins out of 70) led to a substantial reduction in its share. Meanwhile, the CPI(ML)’s impressive 63% success rate earned it a larger presence.
Parties that lost by less than 10,000 votes will be given priority on those seats, ensuring that strong performers are rewarded.
2. Only ‘Winnable’ Seats
Learning from past mistakes, the Grand Alliance focused on contesting only winnable seats. Every seat was analyzed based on its caste dynamics, past performance, and candidate strength. Congress had previously alleged that RJD gave it weak constituencies in 2020 — a mistake both sides have sought to correct this time.
3. Lok Sabha 2024 as a Litmus Test
The recent Lok Sabha elections were used as a performance barometer. MLAs whose constituencies recorded below-par votes for Grand Alliance candidates are likely to lose their tickets. Around 15–20 RJD MLAs failed to deliver during the Lok Sabha polls and face replacement.
4. Accommodating New Allies
The alliance has expanded from five parties in 2020 to seven this year. To make space for new partners such as JMM and RLJP, RJD and Congress have had to surrender a few seats. The shared understanding, insiders say, is that “the larger battle is against the BJP, not each other.”
Congress’s Tough Bargain
Congress, however, remains uneasy. Party insiders admit the reduction from 70 to about 55 seats was “painful but necessary.” Rahul Gandhi’s team has overhauled the Bihar unit, appointing Rajesh Ram as state president and Krishna Allavaru as in-charge to reduce Lalu Prasad Yadav’s influence.
A source said the party based its claim on a detailed internal survey:
- 19 seats won in 2020
- 12 seats lost by under 10,000 votes
- 13 seats lost by 10,000–20,000 votes
That put Congress’s “realistic claim” near 44–60 seats. Candidate selection, party leaders insist, will now be based purely on “popularity, social alignment, and strike rate.”
RJD’s Shift: From Silence on Shahabuddin to Slogans of ‘Amar Rahe’
The RJD, meanwhile, is reshaping its Muslim-Yadav equation. After distancing itself from the Shahabuddin family during the Lok Sabha polls, the party is now reaching out to them again. Tejashwi Yadav’s slogan, “Shahabuddin Amar Rahe” (Long Live Shahabuddin), reflects this repositioning.
Party insiders say Osama Shahab, son of the late leader Mohammad Shahabuddin, could be fielded from Siwan. At the same time, RJD plans to drop around 15–20 MLAs who underperformed during the Lok Sabha elections.
In October 2024, Hina Shahab met Lalu Prasad Yadav in Patna, reportedly resolving long-standing tensions between their families.
Left Parties Eye Expansion into South Bihar
Buoyed by its strong Lok Sabha performance in Ara and Karakat, the CPI(ML) is preparing to expand its footprint. The party, traditionally strong in Bhojpur, Siwan, and Arwal, is eyeing Kaimur, Gaya, Aurangabad, Nalanda, and Jamui in South Bihar, besides pushing for seats in Darbhanga, Madhubani, Supaul, and Purnia.
General Secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya’s visible camaraderie with Tejashwi and Rahul during the Voter Rights Yatra has further consolidated the Left’s position in the alliance.
Caste Arithmetic and the “EBC” Factor
The Grand Alliance’s 2025 campaign is built around the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC), who form nearly 36% of Bihar’s population and have traditionally backed Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
Rahul Gandhi’s recent participation in the “Extremely Backward Justice Resolution” and his public apology to the OBC community mark key efforts to win over these crucial voter blocs.
With 14% Yadav and 17% Muslim voters already considered part of the Grand Alliance’s base, its challenge now lies in cutting into upper-caste and Dalit votes — areas where the NDA retains strongholds through leaders like Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi.
Tensions Over Legal Troubles and “Plan B”
Congress insiders privately admit growing unease over the ongoing “Land for Jobs” case against Lalu Prasad, Rabri Devi, and Tejashwi Yadav. The fear is that any adverse judgment could derail the alliance’s campaign mid-way.
A senior Congress leader said, “If the RJD leadership gets entangled in court cases during the elections, it could trigger a leadership vacuum. We must have a Plan B.”
The party has reportedly pushed for securing more winnable seats to strengthen its footing in case of such a scenario.
Lalu’s Intervention Seals the Deal
At one stage, talks between RJD and Congress reportedly stalled over six contentious seats. It took a direct intervention from Lalu Prasad Yadav— after a phone call from Rahul Gandhi — to break the impasse. Following Lalu’s suggestion, RJD conceded those seats to Congress, clearing the final hurdle.
A political analyst observes, “Every partner in the Grand Alliance believes it will form the next government. The challenge is that each one wants a larger share of the pie. The real test will be Congress’s flexibility — its tough posture could strain the alliance despite having a limited vote base.”
The Road Ahead
As Bihar gears up for the 2025 Assembly elections, the Grand Alliance’s carefully crafted seat-sharing formula reflects a mix of pragmatism, power-sharing, and political foresight. It blends the lessons of 2020, the realities of 2024, and the ambitions of 2025.
Whether this unity of purpose can withstand the BJP’s aggressive campaign and internal contradictions within the alliance will become clear only when the first votes are cast.
