Patna: After three years of relentless groundwork across Bihar, Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor faces what could be his first major electoral setback. As exit polls for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections trickled in on Tuesday, most agencies predicted that Jan Suraaj would struggle to open its account, even as the NDA appeared on course for a decisive victory.
According to the Matrize survey, the NDA is projected to win 147–167 seats, while the Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) may secure 70–90 seats. Jan Suraaj, Kishor’s three-year-old party, is expected to win no more than five seats. Other exit polls paint an equally bleak picture: P-Mark predicts 1–4 seats, People’s Pulse estimates 0–5, and Dainik Bhaskar’s reporters’ poll gives none. People’s Insight allows Kishor’s party a slim chance of one or two seats at most.
If these forecasts prove accurate, the result will be a major blow to the former poll strategist-turned-politician. Kishor, who launched Jan Suraaj on October 2, 2022, has walked thousands of kilometres through villages and towns, promising to reshape Bihar’s politics from the ground up. Yet, despite his focus on employment, education, and governance, exit polls suggest that his message has failed to translate into votes.
Political analysts attribute the party’s weak performance to Bihar’s entrenched bipolar politics. “In a polarized contest, voters tend to align with the big players — BJP, RJD, or JD (U),” said one analyst. “There’s little room for a new force unless the state’s political wave weakens.”
While Prashant Kishor had often described this election as a test of faith — claiming Jan Suraaj would either “touch the heights of success or remain at the bottom” — the exit poll trends seem to confirm the latter scenario. His ambitious padyatra, which began in West Champaran in 2022 and covered nearly every district of Bihar, appears to have built awareness but not yet a vote base.
The 2025 Bihar elections, held in two phases on November 6 and 11, recorded a turnout exceeding 65 percent, reflecting strong public participation. The counting of votes will take place on November 14, when the final verdict will reveal whether Kishor’s political gamble has paid off — or if his journey from strategist to politician remains a cautionary tale in Bihar’s complex political landscape.
