Patna: As voting for the second and final phase of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections concluded on Tuesday, November 11, the JVC Exit Poll 2025 has projected a clear lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), indicating that Nitish Kumar is poised to return as Chief Minister of Bihar.
The two-phase election, held on November 6 and November 11, will see results declared on November 14. According to the JVC survey, the NDA appears to be well ahead of the majority mark, while the Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) is projected to fall short of 100 seats in the 243-member Assembly.
The exit poll suggests the NDA may secure 45% of the total vote share, compared with 42% for the Grand Alliance, 6% for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party (JSP), and 5% for others.
Breaking down the poll data region-wise, the NDA has reportedly performed strongly across key zones of the state:
- Mithila region (42 seats): NDA 31–32, Grand Alliance 10–11
- Magadh region (50 seats): NDA 21–27, Grand Alliance 23–29
- Bhojpur region (55 seats): NDA 27–31, Grand Alliance 23–27, Others 0–1
- Tirhut region (49 seats): NDA 32–35, Grand Alliance 13–14, Jan Suraj 0–1, Others 0–1
- Seemanchal region (24 seats): NDA 10–11, Grand Alliance 9–13, Jan Suraj 0–1, Others 1–3
- Anga region (23 seats): NDA 14, Grand Alliance 9
The survey’s findings underscore the resilience of the Nitish Kumar-led NDA, which appears to have maintained its hold in key regions such as Tirhut and Mithila, while keeping the Grand Alliance largely confined to pockets of influence in Magadh and Seemanchal.
The Jan Suraj Party, led by political strategist-turned-leader Prashant Kishor, was widely expected to emerge as a third front, but the exit poll suggests it has made limited electoral impact, though it may have narrowed margins in a few constituencies.
Despite the projections, political observers remain cautious. Exit polls in Bihar have a history of inaccuracies, with the 2015 elections serving as a reminder — when most surveys predicted a tight race, but the Grand Alliance went on to win a landslide victory.
