Patna: With Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar filing his nomination for the Rajya Sabha, political discussions have intensified over the possibility of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leading the next government in the state. Political sources indicate that a new BJP-led government could be formed in Bihar before April 10, potentially paving the way for the party’s first chief minister in the state.
As speculation grows over who could become the next chief minister, political observers are analysing Bihar’s caste equations and the BJP’s strategy in states it governs. The party currently heads governments in 15 states and has often balanced social and political equations while selecting chief ministers.
Based on Bihar’s caste demographics and the BJP’s past leadership choices, several communities and leaders are being discussed as potential contenders.
EBC category seen as strong claimant
The Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) form the largest social bloc in Bihar with a population share of about 36.01 percent. The group has traditionally been seen as a major support base of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), particularly under the leadership of Nitish Kumar.
Notably, the BJP does not currently have a chief minister from any of the 112 castes classified under the EBC category across the country. This has led to speculation that the party could consider an EBC leader for the top post in Bihar.
However, political analysts note that only eight of the 112 EBC castes have a population share above one percent. Appointing a chief minister from one caste could lead to dissatisfaction among others, which is why leaders like Nitish Kumar have historically balanced representation within the group.
Among the EBC leaders whose names are being discussed are Sanjeev Chaurasia and Dr Pramod Kumar.
Sanjeev Chaurasia, a three-time MLA from Digha, comes from the Chaurasia community. He has a background associated with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and is considered a low-profile leader with a clean image. His father, Ganga Prasad Chaurasia, was a senior BJP leader and former governor.
Dr Pramod Kumar, another EBC leader, is also associated with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and began his political journey through the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) in 1986. He later joined the BJP and served as a state vice-president before being nominated as an MLC in 2021 and becoming a minister in 2025. His personal journey—from selling newspapers and oil during his student years to entering politics—is often cited as an example of a grassroots rise.
Dalit leadership also under discussion
Dalits constitute about 19.65 percent of Bihar’s population. Currently, the BJP does not have a Dalit chief minister in any state, and opposition parties frequently raise issues of Dalit representation.
In recent months, both the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) have undertaken outreach programmes targeting Dalit communities. This has led to speculation that the party could project a Dalit leader for the chief minister’s post.
Two names being discussed in political circles are Janak Ram and Dr Guru Prakash Paswan.
Janak Ram, a former minister from Gopalganj district and currently a member of the Legislative Council, belongs to the Ravidas community. He joined the BJP ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections after previously being associated with the Bahujan Samaj Party and was elected as a Member of Parliament from Gopalganj.
Dr Guru Prakash Paswan, the son of former Union minister Sanjay Paswan, is a national spokesperson of the BJP. Known as a young Dalit face of the party, he holds a PhD in law and frequently represents the party in national debates.
Upper caste option considered less likely
Upper castes in Bihar—including Brahmins, Bhumihars, Rajputs and Kayasths—constitute around 10.6 percent of the population. While these communities are considered core BJP voters, political observers believe the party may prioritise broader social representation in Bihar.
Among Brahmins, senior BJP leader Mangal Pandey has been mentioned as a possible contender. However, the BJP already has Brahmin chief ministers in states such as Assam, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Tripura, which may reduce the chances of another Brahmin leader being chosen.
Within the Bhumihar community, Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Kumar Sinha is seen as a potential candidate. The BJP has not yet appointed a Bhumihar chief minister in any state, which some analysts believe could strengthen his claim if the party opts for an upper-caste leader.
OBC leaders also in the race
According to the Bihar caste survey of 2023, Other Backward Classes (OBCs) constitute around 27.13 percent of the state’s population. For more than three decades, OBC leaders have dominated Bihar’s political landscape.
Among OBC leaders whose names are being discussed are Nityanand Rai, Samrat Choudhary and Tarkishore Prasad.
Union Minister of State for Home Nityanand Rai, who belongs to the Yadav community, is considered close to Union Home Minister Amit Shah. However, analysts say his caste identity could complicate the equation, as Yadavs are traditionally seen as the core vote bank of the Rashtriya Janata Dal led by Lalu Prasad Yadav.
Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, who belongs to the Koeri/Kushwaha community, is currently considered among the frontrunners. The BJP has been making efforts to expand its support among this community in recent years.
Former Deputy Chief Minister Tarkishore Prasad is another name being discussed. A long-time BJP leader from Katihar, he belongs to the Kalwar community, which is part of the Vaishya social group.
As political speculation continues, the BJP leadership has not made any official announcement about a leadership change in Bihar. However, the developments following Nitish Kumar’s Rajya Sabha nomination have triggered intense debate within political circles over who could lead the state if the BJP forms the next government.
