Patna: As Bihar awaits the official results of its 2025 Assembly elections on November 14, exit polls released on Tuesday evening have begun to shape early political narratives. According to a survey by Chanakya Strategy, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s NDA is projected to return to power with a comfortable majority, winning between 130 and 138 seats in the 243-member Assembly.
The Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan), led by Lalu Prasad’s RJD and the Congress, is predicted to secure 100 to 108 seats, while other parties may share between 3 and 5 seats, the survey suggests.
Within the NDA, the BJP is likely to emerge as the largest single party, with projections of 70 to 75 seats, followed by Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) with 52 to 57 seats. Smaller allies, including Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), are forecast to win 14 to 19 seats, while Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM (S) and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLJP may secure up to 2 and 3 seats respectively.
On the opposition side, the RJD remains the primary force in the Grand Alliance, expected to bag 75 to 80 seats, while the Congress appears set for another disappointing performance with 17 to 23 seats. The Left parties, which fielded candidates in select constituencies, are projected to win 10 to 16 seats, and Mukesh Sahni’s VIP could secure 7 to 9 seats, according to Chanakya’s data.
Despite the projections, political observers caution that exit polls in Bihar have often misread voter sentiment. In 2015, most surveys had predicted a tight race, but the Grand Alliance went on to achieve a landslide victory. Whether Chanakya’s projections hold true this time will be known only when the Election Commission begins the official count on Thursday, November 14.
