New Delhi: Meteorologists have warned that La Niña conditions may develop by the end of this year, raising the prospect of a harsher-than-usual winter in India.
The US Climate Prediction Center said on September 11 that there is a 71% chance of La Niña forming between October and December 2025. Although the probability dips to 54% between December and February, a La Niña Watch has been issued.
La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean cool significantly, altering global weather patterns. In India, it typically brings colder-than-average winters and stronger cold waves.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its latest ENSO bulletin that neutral conditions prevail at present, with neither El Niño nor La Niña active. However, its models suggest the likelihood of La Niña rises above 50% post-monsoon. “During La Niña, winters in India are colder than normal,” a senior IMD official said. “Climate change may blunt some of the impact, but cold waves could become more frequent.”
Private forecaster Skymet Weather also pointed to cooling in the Pacific. “Short-term La Niña cannot be ruled out,” said GP Sharma, president of Skymet. “The Pacific Ocean is already cooler than average. If temperatures stay 0.5°C below normal for three quarters, La Niña will be declared. Even without a formal declaration, the cooling will influence global weather—bringing a risk of dry winters in America and severe cold and heavier Himalayan snowfall in India.”
A 2024 study by IISER Mohali and Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research found that La Niña years bring more frequent and longer cold waves across north India. “Cyclonic winds at lower levels pull frigid air from northern latitudes,” the study noted, reinforcing the risk of a prolonged chill this winter.
